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AI Commercial Real Estate Risk Modeler

Natalie Petrov

Full-time · Job · New_York

About the role

Commercial real estate valuations rely on cap rate comparables and DCF models built in Excel by analysts who manually pull comps from three different databases. When interest rates move 200 basis points in 18 months, those models go stale overnight and no one knows which assets in a $4B portfolio are most exposed. We fix that. Our risk modeling platform processes 2.3 million CRE transaction records, 14 years of rent roll data, and real-time economic indicators to produce asset-level risk scores updated weekly. The models feed into the portfolio management tools used by 22 institutional real estate investors. You'll lead the risk model development team — two junior analysts and one data scientist — and own the methodology for cap rate forecasting, vacancy risk prediction, and debt service coverage stress testing. Your models will be scrutinized by portfolio managers with decades of CRE experience, so explainability and calibration matter as much as accuracy.

Responsibilities

  • Lead development of cap rate forecasting and vacancy risk prediction models
  • Build debt service coverage stress testing frameworks for rate and occupancy scenarios
  • Design model explainability features for portfolio manager consumption
  • Validate model outputs against transaction data and appraisal benchmarks
  • Manage and mentor two junior analysts
  • Present methodology to institutional investor clients and their risk committees

Requirements

  • 6+ years in quantitative real estate finance or ML applied to real estate
  • Experience with CRE valuation methods and risk metrics
  • Strong Python and R statistical computing skills
  • Deep understanding of model calibration and explainability requirements
  • Ability to present complex methodology to sophisticated financial audiences

Benefits

  • Fully remote
  • Top-of-market compensation
  • Health, dental, and vision
  • Equity package
  • Annual $5,000 professional development fund

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Categories

data science & analytics AI & Machine Learning Engineers

Skills

python pytorch statistics pandas sql

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Job Type

Full-time

Level

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Language

English

Salary Range

$160k – $200k / year

AI Expertise

data science & analytics AI & Machine Learning Engineers

Skills

python pytorch statistics pandas sql r

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