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AI Subscription Revenue Prediction Analyst

Ilvix Works

Remote · $80k – $100k / year · Full-time · Posted 5 months ago

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About the role

Subscription businesses live and die by MRR predictability. Investors want reliable ARR forecasts; finance needs accurate 12-month revenue projections for budget planning; the CEO wants a single number they can commit to publicly. Our subscription revenue prediction model decomposes MRR into its components — new business, expansion, contraction, and churn — and forecasts each separately before combining them into a total revenue projection with confidence intervals. You'll build the component models: survival models for churn timing, expansion probability models for upsell opportunities, and contraction detection for at-risk accounts showing usage declines. Each component feeds into a cohort-based revenue model that projects forward 18 months with uncertainty bands that actually capture the true range of outcomes. The revenue analytics team is four people. You'll work with our subscription analytics consultant who has modeled revenue for 200+ SaaS companies and knows which signals reliably predict each revenue component.

Fully remote.

Responsibilities

  • Build component revenue models: churn, expansion, contraction, and new business
  • Design survival models for subscription churn timing prediction
  • Create expansion probability models from usage and engagement signals
  • Implement cohort-based revenue projection with uncertainty quantification
  • Validate forecasts against realized revenue outcomes
  • Produce forecast reports for executive and investor audiences

Requirements

  • 5+ years in subscription analytics, SaaS metrics, or financial modeling
  • Experience with survival analysis or cohort-based forecasting
  • Strong Python, SQL, and statistical modeling skills
  • Understanding of SaaS revenue metrics: MRR, ARR, NRR, churn
  • Ability to communicate probabilistic forecasts to non-technical executives

Benefits

  • Fully remote with flexible hours
  • Health and dental insurance
  • $2,500 professional development fund
  • Quarterly team meetups
  • Work with fast-growing SaaS companies on their most critical metric

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Categories

Data Science & Analytics AI Business, Marketing & Strategy

Skills

python sql statistics pandas scikit-learn

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Job Type

Full-time

Level

Senior

Language

English

Salary Range

$80k – $100k / year

AI Expertise

Data Science & Analytics AI Business, Marketing & Strategy

Skills

python sql statistics pandas scikit-learn pytorch

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